世界銀行《全球經濟展望》.pdf

A World Bank Group Flagship Report Global Economic Prospects JUNE 2020 JUNE 2020 Global Economic Prospects 2020 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Telephone 202-473-1000; Internet www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved. 1 2 3 4 23 22 21 20 This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of cutive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other ination shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. 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Examples of components can include, but are not limited to, tables, figures, or images. All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; e-mail pubrightsworldbank.org. ISSN 1014-8906 ISBN paper 978-1-4648-1553-9 ISBN electronic 978-1-4648-1580-5 DOI 10.1596/978-1-4648-1553-9 Cover design Bill Pragluski Critical Stages. The cutoff date for the data used in this report was May 29, 2020 for chapters 1 and 2 and May 22, 2020 for chapters 3 and 4. iii Summary of Contents Chapter 1 Chapter 2 Chapter 3 Chapter 4 Pandemic, Recession The Global Economy in Crisis .............................................. 1 Box 1.1 How deep will the COVID-19 recession be ...............................................13 Box 1.2 Recent developments and outlook for low-income countries LICs...............24 Box 1.3 Scenarios of possible global growth outcomes ..............................................30 Box 1.4 How does inality aggravate the impact of COVID-19 ..........................36 Regional Outlooks...............................................................................................67 Special Focus Regional Macroeconomic Implications of COVID-19 ......................109 Box SF.1 The impact of COVID-19 on global value chains .................................... 117 Lasting Scars of the COVID-19 Pandemic...........................................................131 Box 3.1 How do deep recessions affect potential output in EMDEs........................ 146 Box 3.2 How do disasters affect productivity. ...................................................... 151 Adding Fuel to the Fire Cheap Oil During the Pandemic .....................................181 Box 4.1 Res after the 2014-16 oil price plunge ............................................... 193 Statistical Appendix .......................................................................................................................205 Selected Topics .............................................................................................................................212 Acknowledgments ............................................................................................................................xi Foreword ....................................................................................................................................... xiii cutive Summary ......................................................................................................................... xv Abbreviations................................................................................................................................ xvii v Table of Contents Chapter 1 Pandemic, Recession The Global Economy in Crisis .............................................. 1 Summary ............................................................................................................. 3 Major economies Recent developments and outlook ................................................ 7 United States ................................................................................................. 8 Euro Area ...................................................................................................... 8 Japan............................................................................................................. 9 China .......................................................................................................... 10 Global trends ..................................................................................................... 10 Global trade ................................................................................................. 10 Financial markets.......................................................................................... 12 Commodity markets ..................................................................................... 20 Emerging market and developing economies ......................................................... 21 Recent developments .................................................................................... 22 Outlook ...................................................................................................... 29 Global outlook and risks ..................................................................................... 34 Global outlook ............................................................................................. 35 Risks to the outlook ...................................................................................... 42 Policy challenges ................................................................................................ 47 Challenges in advanced economies.................................................................. 47 Challenges in emerging market and developing economies ................................ 50 Global coordination and cooperation .............................................................. 56 Box 1.1 How deep will the COVID-19 recession be.............................................. 13 Box 1.2 Recent developments and outlook for low-income countries LICs ............. 24 Box 1.3 Scenarios of possible global growth outcomes ............................................ 30 Box 1.4 How does inality aggravate the impact of COVID-19 ........................ 36 References ......................................................................................................... 58 Acknowledgments ............................................................................................................................xi Foreword ....................................................................................................................................... xiii cutive Summary ......................................................................................................................... xv Abbreviations................................................................................................................................ xvii vi Regional Outlooks ............................................................................................. 67 East Asia and Pacific .......................................................................................... 69 Recent developments........................................................................................ 69 Outlook.......................................................................................................... 70 Risks .............................................................................................................. 73 Europe and Central Asia ..................................................................................... 75 Recent developments ...................................................................................... 75 Outlook ........................................................................................................ 76 Risks............................................................................................................. 78 Latin America and the Caribbean ........................................................................ 81 Recent developments ...................................................................................... 81 Outlook ........................................................................................................ 82 Risks............................................................................................................. 84 Middle East and North Africa ............................................................................. 87 Recent developments ...................................................................................... 87 Outlook ........................................................................................................ 88 Risks............................................................................................................. 90 South Asia ......................................................................................................... 93 Recent developments ...................................................................................... 93 Outlook ........................................................................................................ 94 Risks............................................................................................................. 96 Sub-Saharan Africa ............................................................................................ 99 Recent developments ...................................................................................... 99 Outlook ...................................................................................................... 100 Risks........................................................................................................... 102 References........................................................................................................ 106 Chapter 2 Regional Macroeconomic Implications of COVID-19 ......................................... 109 Introduction .................................................................................................... 111 The pandemic and health policy responses........................................................... 112 Regional vulnerabilities to health and economic stress ........................................... 115 Macroeconomic policy responses ........................................................................ 120 Prospects for per capita growth and poverty ......................................................... 126 Risks ............................................................................................................... 128 Box SF.1 The impact of COVID-19 on global value chains................................... 117 References........................................................................................................ 129 Special Focus vii Chapter 3 Lasting Scars of the COVID-19 Pandemic .........................................................131 Introduction .................................................................................................... 133 Spread of the pandemic ..................................................................................... 134 The economics of the pandemic Shocks and spillovers ......................................... 136 Initial impact Economic activity, financial and commodity markets....................... 137 Global activity and trade ............................................................................ 137 Global financial conditions ......................................................................... 138 Commodity markets .................................................................................. 138 Short-term growth impact ................................................................................. 139 Spillovers.................................................................................................. 140 Vulnerabilities Magnifying the short-term impact ........................................ 141 Long-term growth effects ................................................................................... 144 Implications for potential output ................................................................ 145 Implications for productivity ...................................................................... 150 Unique nature of the pandemic Magnifying the long-term impact ................. 150 Conclusion ...................................................................................................... 158 Box 3.1 How do deep recessions affect potential output in EMDEs ................... 146 Box 3.2 How do disasters affect productivity ................................................... 151 Annex 3.1 The macroeconomic effe