IMF2020年6月《世界經濟展望》.pdf

International Monetary Fund | June 2020 1 WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK UPDATE June 2020 A Crisis Like No Other, An Uncertain Recovery Global growth is projected at –4.9 percent in 2020, 1.9 percentage points below the April 2020 World Economic Outlook WEO forecast. The COVID-19 pandemic has had a more negative impact on activity in the first half of 2020 than anticipated, and the recovery is projected to be more gradual than previously forecast. In 2021 global growth is projected at 5.4 percent. Overall, this would leave 2021 GDP some 6 percentage points lower than in the pre-COVID-19 projections of January 2020. The adverse impact on low-income households is particularly acute, imperiling the significant progress made in reducing extreme poverty in the world since the 1990s. As with the April 2020 WEO projections, there is a higher-than-usual degree of uncertainty around this forecast. The baseline projection rests on key assumptions about the fallout from the pandemic. In economies with declining infection rates, the slower recovery path in the updated forecast reflects persistent social distancing into the second half of 2020; greater scarring damage to supply potential from the larger-than-anticipated hit to activity during the lockdown in the first and second quarters of 2020; and a hit to productivity as surviving businesses ramp up necessary workplace safety and hygiene practices. For economies struggling to control infection rates, a lengthier lockdown will inflict an additional toll on activity. Moreover, the forecast assumes that financial conditionswhich have eased following the release of the April 2020 WEOwill remain broadly at current levels. Alternative outcomes to those in the baseline are clearly possible, and not just because of how the pandemic is evolving. The extent of the recent rebound in financial market sentiment appears disconnected from shifts in underlying economic prospectsas the June 2020 Global Financial Stability Report GFSR Update discussesraising the possibility that financial conditions may tighten more than assumed in the baseline. All countriesincluding those that have seemingly passed peaks in infectionsshould ensure that their health care systems are adequately resourced. The international community must vastly step up its support of national initiatives, including through financial assistance to countries with limited health care capacity and channeling of funding for vaccine production as trials advance, so that adequate, affordable doses are quickly available to all countries. Where lockdowns are required, economic policy should continue to cushion household income losses with sizable, well-targeted measures as well as provide support to firms suffering the consequences of mandated restrictions on activity. Where economies are reopening, targeted support should be gradually unwound as the recovery gets underway, and policies should provide stimulus to lift demand and ease and incentivize the reallocation of resources away from sectors likely to emerge persistently smaller after the pandemic. Strong multilateral cooperation remains essential on multiple fronts. Liquidity assistance is urgently needed for countries confronting health crises and external funding shortfalls, including through debt relief and financing through the global financial safety net. Beyond the pandemic, policymakers must cooperate to resolve trade and technology tensions that endanger an eventual recovery from the COVID-19 crisis. Furthermore, building on the record drop in greenhouse gas emissions during the pandemic, policymakers should both implement their climate change mitigation commitments and work together to scale up equitably designed carbon taxation or equivalent schemes. The global community must act now to avoid a repeat of this catastrophe by building global stockpiles of essential supplies and protective equipment, funding research and supporting public health systems, and putting in place effective modalities for delivering relief to the neediest. 2 International Monetary Fund | June 2020 COVID-19 Crisis More Severe Economic Fallout than Anticipated Economic data available at the time of the April 2020 WEO forecast indicated an unprecedented decline in global activity due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Data releases since then suggest even deeper downturns than previously projected for several economies. The pandemic has worsened in many countries, leveled off in others. Following the release of the April 2020 WEO, the pandemic rapidly intensified in a number of emerging market and developing economies, necessitating stringent lockdowns and resulting in even larger disruptions to activity than forecast. In others, recorded infections and mortality have instead been more modest on a per capita basis, although limited testing implies considerable uncertainty about the path of the pandemic. In many advanced economies, the pace of new infections and hospital intensive care occupancy rates have declined thanks to weeks of lockdowns and voluntary distancing. Synchronized, deep downturn. First-quarter GDP was generally worse than expected the few exceptions include, for example, Chile, China, India, Malaysia, and Thailand, among emerging markets, and Australia, Germany, and Japan, among advanced economies. High-frequency indicators point to a more severe contraction in the second quarter, except in China, where most of the country had reopened by early April. Consumption and services output have dropped markedly. In most recessions, consumers dig into their savings or rely on social safety nets and family support to smooth spending, and consumption is affected relatively less than investment. But this time, consumption and services output have also dropped markedly. The pattern reflects a unique combination of factors voluntary social distancing, lockdowns needed to slow transmission and allow health care systems to handle rapidly rising caseloads, steep income losses, and weaker consumer confidence. Firms have also cut back on investment when faced with precipitous demand declines, supply interruptions, and uncertain future earnings prospects. Thus, there is a broad- based aggregate demand shock, compounding near-term supply disruptions due to lockdowns. Mobility remains depressed. Globally, lockdowns were at their most intense and widespread from about mid-March through mid-May. As economies have gradually reopened, mobility has picked up in some areas but generally remains low compared to pre-virus levels, suggesting people are voluntarily reducing exposure to one another. Mobility data from cellphone tracking, for example, indicate that activity in retail, recreation, transit stations, and workplaces remains depressed in most countries, although it appears to be returning to baseline in certain areas. Severe hit to the labor market. The steep decline in activity comes with a catastrophic hit to the global labor market. Some countries notably in Europe have contained the fallout with effective short-term work schemes. Nonetheless, according to the International Labour Organization, the global decline in work hours in 2020Q1 compared to 2019Q4 was equivalent to the loss of 130 million full-time jobs. The decline in 2020Q2 is likely to be equivalent to more than 300 million full-time jobs. Where economies have been reopening, activity may have troughed in Aprilas suggested, for example, by the May employment report for the United States, where furloughed workers are returning to work in some of the sectors most affected by the lockdown. International Monetary Fund | June 2020 3 The hit to the labor market has been particularly acute for low-skilled workers who do not have the option of working from home. Income losses also appear to have been uneven across genders, with women among lower-income groups bearing a larger brunt of the impact in some countries. Of the approximately 2 billion inally employed workers worldwide, the International Labour Organization estimates close to 80 percent have been significantly affected. Contraction in global trade. The synchronized nature of the downturn has amplified domestic disruptions around the globe. Trade contracted by close to –3.5 percent year over year in the first quarter, reflecting weak demand, the collapse in cross-border tourism, and supply dislocations related to shutdowns exacerbated in some cases by trade restrictions. Weaker inflation. Average inflation in advanced economies had dropped about 1.3 percentage points since the end of 2019, to 0.4 percent year over year as of April 2020, while in emerging market economies it had fallen 1.2 percentage points, to 4.2 percent. Downward price pressure from the decline in aggregate demand, together with the effects of lower fuel prices, seems to have more than offset any upward cost-push pressure from supply interruptions so far. Policy Countermeasures Have Limited Economic Damage and Lifted Financial Sentiment Some bright spots mitigate the gloom. Following the sharp tightening during January–March, financial conditions have eased for advanced economies and, to a lesser extent, for emerging market economies, also reflecting the policy actions discussed below. Sizable fiscal and financial sector countermeasures deployed in several countries since the start of the crisis have forestalled worse near-term losses. Reduced-work-hour programs and assistance to workers on temporary furlough have kept many from outright unemployment, while financial support to firms and regulatory actions to ensure continued credit provision have prevented more widespread bankruptcies see Annex 1 and the June 2020 Fiscal Monitor Database of Country Fiscal Measures, which discuss fiscal measures amounting to about 11 trillion that have been announced worldwide, as well as the April 2020 WEO and the IMF Policy Tracker on Responses to COVID-19, which provide a broader list of country-specific measures. Swift and, in some cases, novel actions by major central banks such as a few emerging market central banks launching quantitative easing for the first time and some advanced economy central banks significantly increasing the scale of asset purchases have enhanced liquidity provision and limited the rise in borrowing costs see the June 2020 GFSR Update. Moreover, swap lines for several emerging market central banks have helped ease dollar liquidity shortages. Portfolio flows into emerging markets have recovered after the record outflows in February-March and hard currency bond issuance has strengthened for those with stronger credit ratings. Meanwhile, financial regulators’ actionsincluding modification of bank loan repayment terms and release of capital and liquidity buffershave supported the supply of credit. 4 International Monetary Fund | June 2020 Stability in the oil market has also helped lift sentiment. West Texas Intermediate oil futures, which in April had sunk deep into negative territory for contracts expiring in the early summer, have risen in recent weeks to trade in a stable range close to the current spot price. Exchange rate changes since early April have reflected these developments. As of mid-June, the US dollar had depreciated by close to 4 percent in real effective terms after strengthening by over 8 percent between January and early April. Currencies that had weakened substantially in previous months have appreciated since Aprilincluding the Australian dollar and the Norwegian krone, among advanced economy currencies, and the Indonesian rupiah, Mexican peso, Russian ruble, and South African rand, among emerging market currencies. Considerations for the Forecast The developments discussed in the previous section help shape the key assumptions for the global growth forecast, in particular with regard to activity disruptions due to the pandemic, commodity prices, financial conditions, and policy support. Disruptions to activity in the forecast baseline. Based on downside surprises in the first quarter and the weakness of high-frequency indicators in the second quarter, this updated forecast factors in a larger hit to activity in the first half of 2020 and a slower recovery path in the second half than envisaged in the April 2020 WEO. For economies where infections are declining, the slower recovery path in the updated forecast reflects three key assumptions persistent social distancing into the second half of 2020, greater scarring from the larger-than-anticipated hit to activity during the lockdown in the first and second quarters, and a negative impact on productivity as surviving businesses enhance workplace safety and hygiene standards. For economies still struggling to control infection rates, the need to continue lockdowns and social distancing will take an additional toll on activity. An important assumption is that countries where infections have declined will not reinstate stringent lockdowns of the kind seen in the first half of the year, instead relying on alternative s if needed to contain transmission for instance, ramped- up testing, contact tracing, and isolation. The risk section below considers alternative scenarios, including one featuring a repeat outbreak in 2021. Policy support and financial conditions. The projection factors in the impact of the sizable fiscal countermeasures implemented so far and anticipated for the rest of the year. With automatic stabilizers also allowed to operate and provide further buffers, overall fiscal deficits are expected to widen significantly and debt ratios to rise over 2020–21. Major central banks are assumed to maintain their current settings throughout the forecast horizon to the end of 2021. More generally, financial conditions are expected to remain approximately at current levels for both advanced and emerging market economies. Commodity prices. The assumptions on fuel prices are broadly unchanged from the April 2020 WEO. Average petroleum spot prices per barrel are estimated at 36.20 in 2020 and 37.50 in 2021. Oil futures curves indicate that prices are expected to increase thereafter toward 46, still about 25 percent below the 2019 average. Nonfuel commodity prices are expected to rise marginally faster than assumed in the April 2020 WEO. International Monetary Fund | June 2020 5 Deep Downturn in 2020, Sluggish Turnaround in 2021 Global growth is projected at –4.9 percent in 2020, 1.9 percentage points below the April 2020 WEO forecast Table 1. Consumption growth, in particular, has been downgraded for most economies, reflecting the larger-than- anticipated disruption to domestic activity. The projections of weaker private consumption reflect a combination of a large adverse aggregate demand shock from social distancing and lockdowns, as well as a rise in precautionary savings. Moreover, investment is expected to be subdued as firms defer capital expenditures amid high uncertainty. Policy suppo